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Plummeting value of GBP since Brexit
Thread poster: Tom in London
Robert Rietvelt
Robert Rietvelt  Identity Verified
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Spanish to Dutch
+ ...
Sure you are.... Oct 11, 2016

Tom in London wrote:

I'm a **loser** too for many reasons. The one that worries me the most is what all my EU friends are going to do, who currently live in the UK.

Financially I may not be a **loser** because I am paid in Euro but I do expect all of my living costs to increase significantly.

FOR EXAMPLE:

Fruit and vegetables will no longer be picked by underpaid Romanian and Polish workers but by Brits (once they have learned how to work and stop being lazy). They will demand the minimum wage, go on strike, etc. This will cause the price of food to increase.

[Edited at 2016-10-11 15:01 GMT]


...that is why I said 'not the real looser'. If the trend Euro-Pound is continueing,you will receive some kind of compensation, which can't be said for the average British worker.

About immigration, I wonder if Brexit will stop that.


 
Tom in London
Tom in London
United Kingdom
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TOPIC STARTER
Loser Oct 11, 2016

Robert Rietvelt wrote:

...that is why I said 'not the real looser'.


And that was why I said **loser**.


About immigration, I wonder if Brexit will stop that


That is why the Brexiteers wanted out. About 50% of British people think that all their problems are caused by foreigners. They will change their minds when they discover there are no more doctors/nurses/bus drivers/cleaners etc. But then it will be too late.

[Edited at 2016-10-11 15:33 GMT]


 
Robert Rietvelt
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There are more **losers** Oct 11, 2016

Tom in London wrote:

Robert Rietvelt wrote:

...that is why I said 'not the real looser'.


And that was why I said **loser**.


Me for example. I work for a couple of British agencies which are paying my Euro rate in Pounds (after 1 or 2 months). Still have a few payments standing out. Wonder how much I will receive after changing back into Euros.

Brexit affects us all.


 
Tom in London
Tom in London
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Too bad Oct 11, 2016

Robert Rietvelt wrote:
.....I work for a couple of British agencies which are paying my Euro rate in Pounds (after 1 or 2 months). Still have a few payments standing out. Wonder how much I will receive after changing back into Euros.

Brexit affects us all.



Sorry to hear that. Yes: you will lose out. This gives an apparent advantage to UK-based translators who are paid in Euros by clients in the EU. But anyone seeking a really competent English to Dutch translator will look for one who is based in the Netherlands.

For the future I would suggest you try to insist on being paid in Euro OR that you significantly increase your rate.

HOWEVER: THE BIG PICTURE

To quote the late British Prime Minister Harold Wilson: "A week is a long time, in politics"

Two years is even longer. A lot will happen in British politics over the next two years.

My prediction: because of mounting Brexit difficulties, economic uncertainly, companies leaving the UK, jobs lost, and very hostile pressure from the rest of the EU, the British government will fall some time in the next 2 years and there will be a General Election. Labour will win, and the Brexit process will be discontinued.

[Edited at 2016-10-11 15:47 GMT]


 
Gabriele Demuth
Gabriele Demuth  Identity Verified
United Kingdom
Local time: 14:58
English to German
Illegal! Oct 11, 2016

Tom in London wrote:

Fruit and vegetables will no longer be picked by *underpaid Romanian and Polish workers* but by Brits (once they have learned how to work and stop being lazy). They will demand the minimum wage, go on strike, etc. This will cause the price of food to increase.

[Edited at 2016-10-11 15:01 GMT]


So, we buy fruit and veg here that is produced by slave labour?! Really, is this a fact?! Wouldn't the workers have to be paid minimum wage anyway, otherwise this would be illegal and these companies should be prosecuted. Instead the workers are blamed?! Hm?

And yes, the prices will go up in a couple of years, if we don't stay in the single market.

[Edited at 2016-10-11 16:07 GMT]


 
Tom in London
Tom in London
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Not exactly Oct 11, 2016

Gabriele Demuth wrote:

...so we buy fruit and veg here that is produced by slave labour?! Really, is this a fact?! Wouldn't the workers have to be paid minimum wage anyway, otherwise this would be illegal and these companies should be prosecuted. Instead the workers are blamed?! Hm?

And yes, the prices will go up in a couple of years, if we don't stay in the single market.

[Edited at 2016-10-11 16:07 GMT]



Not exactly. Here's one of the ways in which it works:

British recruitment firms, hired by the big farms that supply the UK supermarket chains like Sainsbury's, Tesco etc. advertise seasonal agricultural labouring jobs directly in Poland and Romania (etc.) in the local languages and not in the UK. These agencies often offer help with transport and local accommodation. Large groups of Poles and Romanians come over to the UK in overninght busses to work on the big farms, mainly in eastern England, for a new months. They are happy to sleep rough and spend little money. By sending the money back to their families the exchange rate is so good that they can build houses etc. For them, it's a good deal!

British workers can't compete with this and anyway, Brits are never offered the jobs because they don't want that kind of hard work. Employers are aways complaining that when they advertise locally, no Brits apply for the work.

Some of the big suppliers have even moved their whole farms to Poland.

https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=ro&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://www.bestjobs.ro/locuri-de-munca-muncitori-sezonieri-in-agricultura-anglia/33459/5&edit-text=&act=url

https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=ro&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://www.click.ro/news/national/locuri-de-munca-marea-britanie-la-ferme-tot-ce-trebuie-sa-stii&edit-text=&act=url

https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=pl&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://praca-anglia24.pl/oferty-pracy/sezonowa/przy-zbiorach/&edit-text=&act=url


Etc.



[Edited at 2016-10-11 16:34 GMT]


 
Gabriele Demuth
Gabriele Demuth  Identity Verified
United Kingdom
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English to German
Yes Oct 11, 2016

As long as they are paid minimum wage as any other worker would be then I don't see the problem, it wouldn't matter whether the job was taken by a British or a Polish worker, and what they do with their earnings is their business.

What I don't understand is that some British people complain that foreigners take their jobs, when either they don't want the jobs anyway or they haven't got the skills to do them.

[Edited at 2016-10-11 16:41 GMT]


 
Tom in London
Tom in London
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Probably Oct 11, 2016

Gabriele Demuth wrote:

As long as they are paid minimum wage as any other worker would be then I don't see the problem, it wouldn't matter whether the job was taken by a British or a Polish worker, and what they do with their earnings is their business.

What I don't understand is that some British people complain that foreigners take their jobs, when either they don't want the jobs anyway or they haven't got the skills to do them.

[Edited at 2016-10-11 16:41 GMT]


Probably the same people who voted for Brexit because they don't like to see all those foreigners in their towns 😂

If you look at those job advertisements I don't know if the rate offered is below the UK minimum wage, but it looks low to me. The advantage the foreign workers have is that they are not paying rent.

Anyway that's why fruit and veg are cheap in the UK - but not for much longer ha ha.

[Edited at 2016-10-11 16:48 GMT]


 
Jennifer Levey
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Chile
Local time: 11:58
Spanish to English
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The real losers are those with zero options Oct 11, 2016

Robert Rietvelt wrote:
The real lo(o)sers are […] the British who get their salaries paid in Pounds.


Many of those whose state pension entitlement is based on UK contributions, and live outside the UK, are, I suggest, even worse off. Anyone who has a salary – albeit paid in pounds - presumably has employment. If they have employment (even if it’s self-employment) they can quite possibly escape, or at least compensate, the perceived problem; for example (as Michael has mentioned) by going to live and work in the EU or elsewhere, or through a change of market strategy.

The employed at least have some degree of choice. But if you’re getting a UK pension, you can do nothing whatsoever to change the source of those GBP.

It remains to be seen what will happen regarding British ex-pats' state pensions. Currently, for those living in the EU or EFTA, there are reciprocity arrangements in place that ensure state pensions can be paid in the country of residence, and the UK pension is index-linked. It seems likely those arrangements will be maintained in the post-Brexit negotiations since there are obvious long-term benefits for folk on both sides of the Channel (and the Irish Sea).

The situation is very different for ex-pats living in most countries outside the EU and EFTA. The UK pension is fixed at retirement age and then remains unchanged forever, steadily falling in purchasing power (that was case even before Brexit). There may be talk of new bi-lateral agreements, but I understand that talks on state pension cooperation between the UK and Chile, for example, began over 20 years ago and have got precisely no-where. I can’t help feeling there will be other priorities, post-Brexit, far more pressing than the stagnant pensions of a few thousand UK pensioners resident south of the equator...

Since the Brexit vote, the value of the GBP has fallen from around 1000 Chilean pesos to barely 820. And it’s still falling fast. The only mitigating factor in my case is that the major part of my state pension was earned in Belgium and Switzerland, not in the UK


[Edited at 2016-10-11 22:46 GMT]


 
Dan Lucas
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United Kingdom
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WTO Oct 11, 2016

Tom in London wrote:
For now, I suggest you assume that your accounts will be in completely separate countries between which there is no trade agreement other than the general WTO rules.

The LSE - not as far as I know a hotbed of Brexitism - has estimated that if no agreements of any kind are reached, the weighted average WTO tariff for UK goods would be about 3%. So, a UK export that cost 100 euro before Brexit would cost 103 to a European customer after Brexit. Oh nos!

However, the pound was worth 1.3 euro on 23 June and is now worth 1.1 euro, a decline of about 15%. Instead of costing 103 euro (the original price + the WTO tariff) that same product would cost the European customer 15% less - roughly 88 euro. Not only has the WTO tariff had no effect, but British exports are even more competitive! Grrrrrrreat!! As you can see, currency fluctuations have far more of an impact than tariffs over the medium to long term. So you can chillax now.

On a less flippant note, it's worth noting that this is what a currency is supposed to do - act as a key part of a self-regulating and self-balancing economic mechanism. The problem faced by the 19 eurozone countries is that they no longer have their own currency safety valves. Instead they share the euro.

If Greece still had the drachma it would have weakened dramatically and they would have been able to lure more tourists and investment with those low, low prices. Ditto Italy, whose once admirable exporting sector would have received a shot in the arm. Germany, conversely, would have struggled a lot more over the past decade because its strong economy would have caused the Deutsche mark to appreciate and made German exports expensive. (Self-regulating, like I said.) So in one way the euro has been great for Germany and terrible for southern Europe.

With these massive internal stresses - which persist because the underlying economies are so different - it's hard to see how the euro can survive longer term. It comes down to how much pain EU member countries and their voters are prepared to accept to keep the euro alive. During the Cyprus crisis, some bank customers simply had their savings appropriated by the government. Nice. Will other countries accept this kind of "bail-in"? They may have to. Given that the UK was potentially on the hook for future financial assistance to eurozone countries via the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism, I'm glad that risk has been removed for us. Now we just have to worry about the remainder of the global economy...

Regards
Dan


 
Dan Lucas
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There does seem to be a motivation problem Oct 11, 2016

Gabriele Demuth wrote:
What I don't understand is that some British people complain that foreigners take their jobs, when either they don't want the jobs anyway or they haven't got the skills to do them.

Presumably there must be something that prevents young British people being motivated and taking these jobs that hard-working Poles and other Europeans do take. Could it be various welfare benefits, including in-work benefits? If you're not in danger of going without food, maybe you don't take on hard work. Looking around me, it's clear that British teens aren't starving - far from it.

For three consecutive summer holidays from the time I was 16, I worked in our local general hospital. Start at 7:30am, leave I think at 2:30pm, one short break. I was a cleaner, which included the toilets which, because it was a geriatric ward, were often in a real state. It wasn't great work or well-paid work, but it was what there was, so I did and saved some money.

I also think part of the problem is precisely that cheap foreign labour comes in and undercuts local wages, which local companies use to their advantage in the way Tom describes.

Dan


 
Anton Konashenok
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Czech Republic
Local time: 15:58
French to English
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Don't worry about IBAN and SEPA Oct 11, 2016

A few colleagues expressed their worries about the IBAN system. There is nothing to worry about - even though it originated within the EU, it has long gone beyond its borders and has nothing to do with EU membership. It's now used in many countries far away from Europe, from Brazil to Timor Leste.

SEPA isn't going anywhere, either - it's also used in non-EU countries - all of EFTA, as well as Monaco and San Marino. And it's only about euro anyway.


 
Lianne van de Ven
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Excuse me? Oct 12, 2016

Tom in London wrote:

But anyone seeking a really competent English to Dutch translator will look for one who is based in the Netherlands.



What???


 
Vanda Nissen
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Well said Oct 12, 2016

Heinrich Pesch wrote:

Britain's position in relation to the EU will be like Norway after the exit has taken place. So relax, I haven't seen Norwegians jumping into the sea because they are not in the EU.
2009 the Euro bought 1.60 USD. Now only 1.10. So my American client pays me more for the same word rate.

Currency fluctuations are natural, and yes, exiting the European Union is not the end of the world (or the end of the currency, as a matter of fact.)


 
Tom in London
Tom in London
United Kingdom
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In fact... Oct 12, 2016

Dan Lucas wrote:

.....I also think part of the problem is precisely that cheap foreign labour comes in and undercuts local wages, which local companies use to their advantage in the way Tom describes.

Dan


In fact years ago when I was a student, I would make ends meet financially by migrating from Ireland to England in the summer to work in the fruit orchards and canning factories of Lincolnshire, or as a temporary labourer in steelworks of north-east England.

The UK Labour Party's policy on migration, now, is not to throw numbers around (XX,000 immigrants etc.) but to insist on full workers' rights for all, and the "living wage" or better for everyone working in the UK. This will instantly stop the trafficking of cheap labour from other EU countries. Labour's critics use this to say Labour has "no policy on immigration" but that's only because it's too difficult for them to understand, with their limited intelligence.

Although we seem to be wandering off-topic, it's important to understand the wider context in which our specific specialism - translating - is being affected by Brexit. After all isn't it us, translators, who are always complaining about undercutting by other translators working in low-cost countries?


 
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Plummeting value of GBP since Brexit







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